Offseasons look so different in January than do in late November. When the World Series ends, teams set out to fill the clear-cut holes within their roster. First, second, and safety-school type choices for each. Their objective is to solve problem areas, fill in the gaps.
But come the new year (despite the NL Cy Young Winner, NL Comeback Player of the Year, and a World Series hero all still yet to sign), most concrete needs have been addressed. The Yankees, it seems, have filled the obvious openings on their roster:
-2 lefty-swinging outfielders (Juan Soto, Alex Verdugo, & even Trent Grisham)
-1-2 additional starting pitching options (Marcus Stroman, Luke Weaver, Cody Poteet)
-1 left-handed reliever (Victor Gonzalez)
That said, the roster still feels like it lacks certainty. It lacks a little oomf. The positions are filled, but…couldn’t they be filled…BETTER? Is there a world in which rather than filling a hole with a player, the Yankees identify a spot on the roster that could be better, then through some series of moves deal the player currently occupying the position and acquire their replacement?
While Yankee fans are dreaming on the next big acquisition, the reality is that the team has inched right up next to the luxury tax threshold at which every additional dollar spent is taxed at 100%. Each new signing, essentially, costs twice as much as what the player will receive. But improving on the margins…that might not be quite as costly.
And, in doing so, the team could even — perhaps — try to shed a little payroll, decreasing the number of dollars that go beyond the threshold without sacrificing performance on the field.
Going through the roster, there are contracts that obviously won’t move for reasons good and bad (Judge, Cole, Stanton, Rodon), players whose contracts wouldn’t provide much in terms of salary relief (Volpe, Wells, etc), and players who I just don’t envision the team moving at this point (Torres, Rizzo). The three players who cost a decent chunk of change and could — theoretically — be expendable or easily replaced are:
LF Alex Verdugo ($8.7mm)
CF Trent Grisham ($5.5mm)
RHP Tommy Kahnle ($5.75mm)
And when you look at the roster, those marginal areas for upgrade seem to be: the rotation, the bullpen, third base, and left/center field (with Judge manning the other).
Thus, we’re given a bit of a perfect storm for getting rid of recent Boston import Verdugo.*
*It’s important to note that, yeah, this article is DRENCHED in anti-Verdugo bias. He was a Red Sox who FELT like a Red Sox. Unlike Stroman, whose Yankee fan issues stemmed from a competitive spirit, Verdugo has been benched for showing up late, not hustling, and generally just being a bit unprofessional. This is a team that makes players shave every day because that is how much they care about professionalism. Verdugo was acquired pre-Soto, and was decent insurance, but (on top of the reasons outlined above) if you can get rid of a guy this unlikable BEFORE he sucks on the big stage (see Donaldson, Josh) — you should take advantage of the opportunity.
What would “upgrading on the margin” look like in left (or center) field? Well, you have to imagine it would still involve a left-handed hitter, ideally one with the range to play center or Yankee Stadium’s left field (which is massive). Obviously, an OPS+ topping Verdugo’s league average 100 from last season would be a plus — and hey, if he costs less than Verdugo and helps lower the payroll that’d be nice too.
The tricky part here, though, isn’t just finding an upgrade — but finding a way to get rid of Verdugo in the process of the acquisition. There are a couple ways to do this. For the sake of illustration, I’ll use letter grades to make things simple — this isn’t me defining Verdugo as a B-level player or a potential upgrade as an A, its just a way to make these concepts clearer.
1. Trade a B-level player PLUS additional pieces for an A-level player. The B-level player REPLACES the A-level player on their respective team’s roster, and the team accepts the downgrade due to the supplementary upgrades made elsewhere on the roster. A solid example here is when the Padres packaged Taylor Rogers with Dinelson Lamet, Esteury Ruiz, and Robert Gasser in exchange for Josh Hader.
2. Trade a B-level player for other pieces. Sign a preferred A or B-level player from the free agent market. The Cubs signing Ben Zobrist and trading Starlin Castro at the same time is a perfect example of this.
3. Three-way Trade: Send your B-level OF to a team that needs him. They send a different type of player to a team that needs THEM. That 3rd team then deals their A or B-level OF to your team to complete the circle. Obviously, these trade can involve many more pieces and get more complicated — but it’s one way to solve the problem. A good example is the Sean Murphy trade from a year ago. The Braves wanted to upgrade at catcher — so, they sent William Contreras to Milwaukee, Milwaukee sent Esteury Ruiz to Oakland, and Oakland sent Sean Murphy to Atlanta. Of course, there were also multiple other players involved — Manny Piña, Freddy Tarnok, Kyle Muller, and and Royber Salinas joined Ruiz in Oakland & Justin Yeager and Joel Payamps made their way to Milwaukee with Contreras.
With those potential solutions in mind, three things are important for the Yanks:
1. They need to identify the players who would qualify as “upgrades” over Verdugo.
2. They need to identify the teams who would view Verdugo as an upgrade.
3. They need to investigate the teams the players from step 1 play for and see what additional problem areas they might be able to solve, in exchange for that team accepting a downgrade in the outfield.
STEP 1 - Find a team with an expendable switch-hitting outfielders with decent gloves (For some reason, the NL Central seems to be the place to find them…)
MILWAUKEE BREWERS
The Milwaukee Brewers are pretty stacked in the “talented outfielders under team control for a WHILE” department. Christian Yelich is under contract through ‘28 (with a mutual option for ‘29) and top prospect Jackson Chourio is under contract through ‘31 PLUS club options that — if he’s as good as folks expect — will surely be picked up for ‘32 and ‘33. That leaves just one spot on the grass for Sal Frelick, Garrett Mitchell, and Joey Wiemer to fight over. With both Frelick and Mitchell being left-handed hitters, it seems like the team could likely spare one to address a greater need - no? Frelick is probably the stronger of the two, so I’d set my sights on Garrett Mitchell.
ST LOUIS CARDINALS
Much like the Padres and Angels, the Cardinals had a very “How did we play like THAT when we have THESE players on our roster?” Paul Goldschmidt. Nolan Arenado. Nolan Gorman, Jordan Walker. There’s PLENTY of talent on this club, which is part of what made 2023 so disappointing. The Cards have already dealt away one outfielder, Tyler O’Neill, to the Red Sox, but have a number of other outfielders still on the squad. Jordan Walker, Dylan Carlson (S), Tommy Edman (S), Lars Nootbaar (L), Alec Burleson (L), and Brendan Donovan (L). I doubt Walker and Nootbaar are going anywhere. Edman has a lot of value because he can move back to shortstop if Masyn Winn struggles. Dylan Carlson, Alec Burleson, and Brendan Donovan are the more likely candidates to move.
CINCINNATI REDS
This team is FLUSH with young position player talent. More players than they have space for, if we’re being honest. Across three outfield spots and DH, they need to find room for Spencer Steer, Jonathan India, Stuart Fairchild, TJ Friedl (L), Jake Fraley (L), Will Benson (L). Plus, Christian Encarnacion-Strand will likely be in the mix for DH time too. Dealing away one of the team’s young left-handed outfielders would free up roster space and allow the team to address another need — maybe one more arm for a high-ceiling, but injury-prone rotation. Jake Fraley looks like the most likely candidate to go, with Friedl and Benson further away from arbitration
CHICAGO CUBS
This one really hinges on a Cody Bellinger return. With Bellinger back on the North Side, the Cubbies would have him, Pete Crow-Armstrong, and Seiya Suzuki ready to rock and roll for ‘24. Oh, and Ian Happ. And wait, Mike Tauchmann too! Plus prospects Owen Caissie, Kevin Alcantara, Brennan Davis, and Alex Cannario knocking at the door. There’s no chance the team deals PCA, and if they add Bellinger they — of course — aren’t about to deal him away. Suzuki is signed through ‘26 (making $20mm, followed by two years at $18mm) and the recently extended Happ is in the same boat, except making an extra $2mm in ‘25. Oh, and they both have full no-trade clauses. The Cubs will make it work with all these guys, but the player who could get lost in the mix: old Yankee fan favorite Mike Tauchmann.
There are certainly more players to consider who would fall into the “Downgrade with Verdugo, Upgrade Elsewhere” camp. Folks like Nolan Jones, Brandon Marsh, Jack Suminski, Steven Kwan, Max Kepler, Mike Yasztremski, Jazz Chisholm Jr, Mickey Moniak, Luke Raley, Jeff McNeil, and Jesus Sanchez.
Step 2: Find a team that would view Verdugo as a positive addition.
Suprise: Most teams don’t want this guy! Here are a few that MIGHT.
HOUSTON ASTROS
Houston’s GM, Dana Brown, went so far as to say this; “If we could somehow get a left-handed bat, preferably an outfielder with some speed, that type of package — we’ll pounce on it.” It sure sounds like the team is looking for a platoon partner for Jake Meyers. As MLBTR points out, Meyers is .220/.228/.351 lifetime against righties & .270/.316/.440 against left-handed pitchers. My first impulse was “Grisham!” because of the speed element. But Trent weirdly has inverse splits which makes him rather non-ideal for the ‘stros. On the other hand, Verdugo doesn’t necessarily offer much in the way of speed (he’s fairly middle-of-the-pack), but he’d otherwise fit the bill. Last season, he rocked platoon splits that would pair well with Meyers’ production: .220/.311/.298 against lefties. .279/.329/.464 against right-handers.
SAN DIEGO PADRES
Didn’t this team just trade two left-handed bats to the Yankees? They sure did! You probably remember rumors about Verdugo maybe being flipped to SD in the deal. Not sure if those were real or not, but it would make sense. After dealing away Soto and Grisham, the Friars’ outfield is EMPTY. They’ve got Fernando Tatis Jr and….Jose Azocar, I guess? Grisham would give them a serviceable bat and glove. Of course, San Diego is also dead broke and Verdugo’s salary could be an issue. Could they potentially offset costs (be it in a two- or three-team trade) where they deal Robert Suarez, Ha-Seong Kim, or Jake Cronenworth as part of a deal? Would anyone take Yu Darvish’s monster contract (or some of it) off their hands? Could they stand to part ways with Joe Musgrove — knowing the salary relief could change things for them over the next few years in a MASSIVE way? Would the Yankees take on that contract — which looks much more reasonable than what Monty or Snell will command — while giving away Verdugo and a pitcher to take Musgrove’s rotation spot like Nestor Cortes Jr?
COLORADO ROCKIES
This team won’t compete in 2024. But man, they’ve got to do SOMETHING. Adding Verdugo, they could have him, Nolan Jones, and Brenton Doyle in the outfield every day. That lets Kris Bryant stay at first where he’s less likely to get injured. And Charlie Blackmon DHs day-in & day-out. Verdugo’s a one-year acquisition. He doesn’t block prospects like Zack Veen from hitting the bigs, he adds another MLB quality player to the lineup, and — if he hits well — who knows, maybe he’s a deadline trade chip. The Rockies’ projected Opening Day payroll is under $140mm, after last year’s being over $170mm. They can handle the salary for a season.
ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS
The reigning NL Champs have Corbin Carroll and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. locked in for two outfield spots…but beyond that things are less clear. Alek Thomas, Dominic Fletcher, Pavin Smith, and Jake McCarthy could all be in the mix — but none are a sure thing. A league-average bat like Verdugo could lift this offense’s floor. Adding Verdugo isn’t a flashy move by any means, but it is a beneficial one. This isn’t a team that needs a total revamp — but a little retooling (and improvement at the margins) can help them look to keep pace in the NL West this season.
Alright, now that we’ve got a bit of the landscape — let’s start thinking about what it would take to send Verdugo away.
VERDUGO TO HOUSTON
The Astros sure have a lot of pitching talent that MLB.com has their MLB ETA as ‘24 or ‘25. Spencer Arrighetti (Org’s #3 prospect), Colton Gordon (#7), Rhett Kouba (#9), Michael Knorr (#12), Trey Dombroski (#20), Miguel Ullola (#22), Andrew Taylor (#23), and Jaime Melendez (#27).
With Brandon Woodruff gone, Corbin Burnes, Willy Adames, & Devin Williams leaving at the end of the year, and other NL Central teams like the Reds and Cubs on the rise, the Brew Crew could stand to re-stock the upper levels of the minors with some near-MLB-ready pitching. Knowing that Houston likely would prefer Mitchell to Verdugo, it’s unlikely the Yankees could get a 3-team conversation going without finding themselves iced out in the end. But two separate trades?
Just playing around over at BaseballTradeValues.com, this seemed to be a possible way to make this happen (based on BTV’s trade values):
Brewers trade OF Garrett Mitchell to New York for infielder Jared Serna (NYY’s #18 prospect) and pitchers Brock Selvidge (#11), Brendan Beck (#19), Carlos Lagrange (#25), and Justin Lange (#26).
Yankees trade OF Alex Verdugo to Houston for pitchers Rhett Kouba (HOU’s #9 prospect), Jaime Melendez (#27), and Misael Tamarez (#30).
VERDUGO TO SAN DIEGO
With salary being an issue in San Diego, it’s hard to imagine them taking on Verdugo without some sort of salary offset. This is fantasy baseball talk and I don’t think the BTV numbers reflect reality here. But…imagine this:
Yankees trade OF Alex Verdugo, SP Nestor Cortes Jr., RP Tommy Kahnle to San Diego for SP Joe Musgrove and IF Ha-Seong Kim. On the surface — yes, that’s crazy. What’s crazier — BTV thinks this favors SAN DIEGO. But, here’s the thinking:
For San Diego, they get the outfield bat they desperately need. They add a power arm to a bullpen that just lost Josh Hader. And Nestor Cortes Jr. steps in to take Joe Musgrove’s rotation spot for the next two seasons. Is he riskier? Sure. Is he also a helluva lot cheaper? You betcha. The Pades would take on $18.45mm in salary for ‘24, while dumping…$28mm. That’s $9.5mm in savings for the upcoming season. Plus Kahnle and Verdugo come off the books at year’s end and Nestor will have a manageable final arbitration number for his last year of control. Musgrove, on the other hand, is owed $60mm over the three seasons following this one.
With that extra space this season, the Friars could add a first baseman off the free agent market. Joey Votto, CJ Cron, Brandon Belt, etc. They’ll shift Cronenworth back to 2B and call it a day.
The Yanks, obviously would throw an absolute party for a steal like this. Musgrove is much more reliable than Nestor and a 4-year, $80mm deal for a #2 is MUCH more efficient than a Snell/Monty contract. Ha-Seong Kim gives the Yanks the elusive thing they’re missing: a left-handed, defense-first infielder who can play 2B,3B, and SS.
Okay, this is insane. It won’t happen. But BTV has Musgrove’s value as negative and to live in a world where that is real…I mean it’s absolutely wild. In theory, this would give the Yanks more freedom to deal Oswald Peraza — a player who makes a lot of sense for a team like Milwaukee.
VERDUGO TO COLORADO
This is an unlikely, but fun fit. The Rockies don’t have much to offer in terms of value for Verdugo. Taking him on would likely be salary relief plus a C-level prospect or two. There’s no reason for Colorado to sacrifice too much talent for a season of Verdugo. But for his salary alone — he’s a decent add! Thus, Verdugo to Colorado would likely be the follow-up move to a separate deal to acquire an upgrade over him.
This could be paired with a Brendan Donovan acquisition from St. Louis. The Cardinals have some holes in their bullpen and would benefit immensely from a Jonathan Loaisiga, Scott Effross, Tommy Kahnle, etc. Someone with less service time than Donovan — like Everson Pereira — might make sense. After a disappointing ‘23, the Cards could also restock their minor league system with Roderick Arias, George Lombard Jr, or Ben Rice.
A Mike Tauchmann reunion could also be a fun play. The Cubs don’t have much reason to hold onto him — not with Happ, PCA, Suzuki set to start, a Bellinger reunion in play, and Christopher Morel, Patrick Wisdom, Michael Busch, and Matt Mervis competing for plate appearances at the corner infield spots and DH. BTV vastly overestimates The Sockman’s value, but I’d imagine 2-3 lower-level prospects could do the job.
And then there’s Cincy’s Jake Fraley or Milwaukee’s Garrett Mitchell. I’d write something up on this, but at this point I’m sick of writing so who knows. You know how trades work. Needs, etc.
VERDUGO TO ARIZONA
The Yanks could swap Verdugo for somebody like Kevin Ginkel to add to their ‘pen. This would, as with these other Verdugo-ridding options, pair with one of the aforementioned potential acquisitions.
Okay, it’s 12:20am. I’m tired. I just think there’s better players than Verdugo available and there are teams that would take him off the Yankees hands. If they really want to win — this is a smart spot to upgrade. Because right now…if (God forbid) Judge or Soto deals with injury…this outfield is going to be a MESS.